When is the Best time to Book a UK / Europe Business Class Airfare?

When the advertising for “Earlybird Airfares” for Business Class to the UK / Europe comes out in full force, it’s a good time to reflect on the changes we have seen in Earlybird pricing, and to share our observations on the best time to book Business Class Flights to the UK and Europe.

Summary

The airlines that sell Business Class and Premium Economy airfares from New Zealand to the UK and Europe adopt different approaches to releasing special offers and discounts.  Understanding each airline's approach allows Fine Travel clients to make an informed decision about when it is best to book their airfare.

Table of Contents

1. The history of UK & Europe Earlybird Specials
2. Different kinds of Business Class specials and fares to the UK & Europe
3. About Tactical Business Class specials and participating airlines
4. About Rolling Business Class specials and participating airlines
5. About Sharp Lead-In Business Class airfares and participating airlines
6. Summary of approaches by airline
7. What does this mean for booking UK & Europe Business Class and Premium Economy airfares

The history of UK / Europe Earlybird Specials

• Pre-Covid, airline competition in the market for Business Class flights from New Zealand to the UK / Europe changed the way airlines approached the traditional UK / Europe Earlybird season.
• At the start of the season we would traditionally see a resetting of lead-in Business Class specials to what would be the lowest price for the cheapest Business Class booking class for the season.  From 2018 these lead-in prices plateaued, and we started to see “Rolling Specials” without lead-in price increases become more common.
• With some exceptions, 2019 Earlybird pricing largely represented a continuation of the 2018 Business Class specials that had been in the market.  There was no noticeable “reset” of entry level prices to a lower start of season lead-in price.
• Airlines set their lead-in UK / Europe Business Class price level based on where they see their relative value proposition (and some airlines refer to Fine Travel’s UK / Europe Business Class specials page to gauge this).
• Booking in advance then provided the greatest opportunity to secure lead-in pricing.  The availability (or relative scarcity) of the required “lead-in booking class” became the primary focus.  Read more about "Lead-in Booking Classes" in our blog: Planning Ahead for Discounts on Business Class flights to the UK / Europe.
• In 2022 the surprise announcement to bring forward the opening of our borders post COVID meant that airlines didn't have time to plan allocating capacity to New Zealand.  Limited inbound tourism also affected the business case for aircraft allocation. Combined with soaring oil prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Business Class prices to the UK and Europe rose dramatically and any Business Class seat, let alone discounted Business Class booking classes were hard to come by.  In June 2022 the available airline seats available for sale were at 36% of pre-Covid seats.  In August this is expected to reach 53% and by November 74%.
• Through 2024 and 2025 we saw the first signs of greater competition on routes to the UK & Europe.  Airlines like China Southern, Asiana and Malaysia Airlines released very well priced Business Class airfares with reasonable capacity.  Qatar Airways, after progressively increasing prices as part of their rolling specials started releasing tactical specials.  Singapore Airlines (and Joint Venture partner Air New Zealand) released relatively regular tactical specials.  Emirates progressively increased its fares at the end of each special validity period and appears to remain comfortable that its fares are competitive without the need to discount.

Tactical Specials, Rolling Specials and Sharp Lead-Ins

In 2017 Qatar Airways made a real impact on the New Zealand market for Business Class airfares to the UK / Europe.  As we met with Commercial Managers and Representatives of the major airlines, it didn’t take long before Qatar Airways was mentioned.  This additional competition (which followed competition from airlines like China Southern, Korean Air and Etihad and improved offerings from Thai Airways) seemed to result in a structural change in how the traditional “Earlybird Season” unfolded.

Our past experience was that Earlybird seasons would start with what we described as the “resetting of discounts to the lowest levels for the upcoming season”.  Airlines would release "Tactical Specials" with a definitive timeframe and travel period.  From that low point, the lead-in prices progressively increased at the expiry of each tactical period. 

During 2018 however we saw a change: Lead-in prices stopped going up and settled at a level that each airline appeared to believe represented fair relative value for their product and service. Ad hoc specials with price increases appear to have been replaced with “Rolling Specials” with less frequent price changes.  Post 2022 and into the more settled 2025 period we see airlines fall into three categories:

• Tactical Specials - Discounted Business Class airfares for a set travel period that generally expire and are replaced with long-term published fares.
• Rolling Specials - Technically tactical fares, but at the end of the tactical period the fares and sale period generally roll over to a new sale period.
• Sharp Lead-Ins - Published fares from airlines like Asiana and China Southern that need to be "built" by your travel agent in order to get the booking classes that yield very sharp prices.

Tactical Specials

Airlines: Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand, Qantas, Malaysia Airways, China Airlines and (sometimes) Qatar Airways

Tactical specials are traditional specials: Discounted airfares with a set sale period for specific travel periods.  For these airlines, the recommended strategy is to book when their fares are on sale.  Generally booking early yields the best prices as each subsequent sale is unlikely to undercut a prior special.  

We've listed Qatar Airways under Tactical Specials and Rolling Specials below.  Qatar Airways was settled as a Rolling Specials airline, but in 2025 we saw it release tactical specials so at the moment it's difficult to provide definitive guidance on a recommended approach to booking Qatar Airways.  

How are “Rolling Specials” Different?

Airlines: Emirates and Qatar Airways

With Rolling Specials, discounted lead-in Business Class airfares are more frequently in the market and are more likely to “rollover” into a replacement special after they expire.  Lead-in price increases are more likely to reflect inflation and the price of oil.

For the airlines with Rolling Specials booking as soon as you have your dates, and your dates are within the airline's system range, is generally the best strategy.  We've generally seen airlines either keep their fares the same or fractionally increase them at the expiry of a special period. 

Sharp Lead-In Fares

Airlines: Asiana, China Southern, China Eastern

These airlines offer as their regular published fares a lead-in fare that is consistently one of the cheapest on offer and there are generally no expiry dates.  

Technically these airfares generally need to be "built" by your travel agent.  Building an airfare requires knowing the right booking classes to book and when more than one airline is involved, knowing which booking classes work together.  Using Asiana as an example, Asiana flies out of Australia via Seoul to the UK & Europe so building the airfare requires knowing how to book the right Air New Zealand or Qantas flights across the Tasman and the right Asiana booking classes to secure the lead-in fare.

Generally booking early, and once your dates are within the airline's system range, is the recommended approach for these airlines.

Summary of Business Class Specials

What does this mean for UK / Europe Earlybird Travel?

Understanding each airline's approach to releasing Business Class and Premium Economy specials to the UK and Europe can provide greater certainty as to the best time to book.  Whether we're at the start of the Earlybird Season or close to your preferred departure date, contact a Fine Travel Consultant to explore your options. 

VIEW UK / EUROPE BUSINESS CLASS SPECIALS